Global inaction on climate change is not consequence-free for Australia’s society, economy, environment, or national security. That is true whether you accept the scientific consensus on global warming or not.
Climate change brings direct environmental impacts such as increased heatwaves, more severe drought (in the South), further coastal erosion, and lengthened fire seasons. These environmental impacts have knock-on economic and social (including health) impacts. The ocean is taking up most of the extra heat caused by global warming and water expands as it gets hotter. The ongoing rise in sea level threatens the viability of low-lying islands in our neighbouring oceans. That will lead to Australia paying more for humanitarian and military interventions to protect our interests in our geopolitical sphere of influence. This is just one example of the disruptions climate change has for people across the globe, so Australia playing its role and encouraging high-emissions countries to play theirs helps people everywhere. Finally, other countries are imposing border adjustment tariffs and markets are refusing to finance activities that contribute to climate change. That is a problem for Australia with our reliance on international trade and foreign investment. Rather than wishing these realities away, let’s accept the cold hard reality and move on to goals, plans, and action.
In a market economy exposed to international trade, there is a constant churn of industries and jobs being created and lost. Climate change and the global response add to this churn. Just as Australia no longer has a car industry, despite current trends to the contrary, if the world acts to limit global warming to less than 1.5˚C, without significant clean coal technology, Australia’s coal mining industry will be vastly smaller. This will have major social implications as livelihoods are lost. It will require the ongoing re-tooling of Australia’s energy market and infrastructure. At the same time, Australia has an opportunity to take advantage of new industries, jobs, and energy required for a net-zero world. But, no matter how impatient we are, none of this will happen overnight and will require transition plans.
Next25 Navigator tells us that caring for the environment, plants, and animals is the fourth most important aspiration for Australians. The sixth is the government prioritising the needs of Australia first when making decisions.
It is in Australia’s interest for the world to act on climate change and Australians want action on climate change.
Navigator also shows that three of the top seven biggest issues for the nation to improve are: government prioritising voters above vested interest (donors, property developers, big business, unions, media, lobbyists); government taking future generations into account when making decisions; and government prioritising the needs of Australia first when making decisions.
But on climate change, Australia has so far been unable to meet those expectations.
Australia’s decades-long muddle on climate change is driven by three major forces that stand in the way of making the country Australia wants more broadly.
First, the three parts of society that Australians see as having the most power to make a difference (politicians, business leaders, and experts) have been unable to agree, and the public feels powerless despite hundreds of thousands voicing their concern.
Second, Australia has hamstrung itself with false dichotomies (eg, having to choose either emissions reductions or lower costs of living rather than taking action to achieve both at once) and taking options off the table on (often inconsistent) ideological grounds before exploring their merits (eg, market-based emissions reduction schemes, carbon taxes, electric vehicle policies, nuclear power, and carbon capture, use, and storage).
Third, Australia has lacked the ability, will, and leadership to constructively debate a complex problem – the national conversation is broken, and many people in leadership positions have ducked and weaved on their responsibility. As one example of this complexity, when looking at Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions, many things are true at once. Australia’s domestic greenhouse gas emissions are a small part of global warming, even when considering historical emissions. Australians on a per capita basis are some of the largest emitters in the world (alongside Americans and roughly double Chinese). Australia is a large exporter of fossil fuels and minerals that release emissions when processed or used in destination countries. Finally, the industrialised West, of which Australia is a part, has been the largest emitter since the Industrial Revolution, but that is no longer the case, with China, the USA (roughly half the Chinese total), and India (roughly one-quarter the Chinese total) making up the top three.
Rather than go-nowhere arguments based on cherry-picked data, Australia needs a more constructive debate that squares the circle on three issues. How can an open acknowledgment of our past contributions to the problem build trust with developing nations that must be part of the solution (eg, China and India)? How can a clear commitment to reduce our emissions in line with global goals encourage other countries to achieve a global result that is in Australia’s interest, given Australia cannot fix the problem alone? How can Australia simultaneously transition the nation’s infrastructure, export industries, and jobs to a carbon-constrained world?
On climate change – as with the other major opportunities and challenges Australia faces – there can be no solution without a common goal that is commensurate with the scale of the challenge. The goal is the magnet attracting ingenuity that enables the plans to unlock the action that solves the problem. But in Australia, we are still squabbling about the goal – between the States and the Commonwealth, and even within each of the major political parties – which has led to wasted decades, wasted money, and wasted effort as we wander around in different directions without a plan.
Until we improve how Australia makes its future, our nation’s success is in jeopardy amid a changing world.
Let’s move on from being the “lucky country” to the country that makes its own luck.